Your Distant SoulmateThe Case For Online Dating

Statistics paint a sobering picture

The more we think about the vast expanse of our world, the more impossible the task of finding "the one" seems.

With billions of inhabitants scattered across far flung landscapes and cultures, living in the 10,000 cities, 500,000 towns, and countless villages that make up this world, it truly is like finding a needle in a field of haystacks.

Let's use some math to understand what we're up against and how best to go about finding our needle.

How big is the haystack?

At the time of writing, the world's population is just over 8 billion.  Roughly 70% are of marriageable age (over 18), and of those roughly 30% are available (single).

If we assume your gender preference excludes half of these individuals, it works out at roughly 1-in-10 people around the world being "available".  This figure varies between countries based on local customs, trends, divorce rates, and so on.

The good news: There are roughly 800 million potential partners for you globally.

How many needles are there?

Each of us has a personal set of must-haves for our "perfect match".  For most, a compatible personality, shared core values, physical attraction, and a similar age range are essential qualities in a partner.

Beyond that, personal preferences come into play, such as lifestyle choices, desire for children, spirituality, height, build, career goals, cooking skills, and socioeconomic status to name but a few.

Even with all these boxes checked, there still needs to be an emotional connection... a "spark"... that intangible feeling of being perfectly matched.

It is estimated that, depending on the individual and desired depth of compatibility, the probability of an "available" person being a compatible match is only 1-in-200 to 1-in-1,000.  One study went as far as to come up with the exact figure of 1-in-562.

Hold on, it's not that simple

Suppose you are at an event with 100,000 random people attending.  Out of those, only 1-in-10 (10,000) will be "available" (legal age, single, desired gender).

According to the probability mentioned above, between 10 and 50 of those 10,000 are compatible partners for you.

However, "compatible" is not the same as "the one", just as "wearable" is not the same as "stylish".

The phrase "The One For You" exists for a reason: If you choose anyone else, there will always be someone better.

Let's say you are very flexible about age and 1-in-3 of these people aged 18-80 are acceptable.  That leaves about 3,300.

Let's also be generous and say that 1-in-8 are "love at first sight" attractive.  This reduces the pool to around 400.

Filter those who have compatible lifestyles (1-in-2), the same desire for children (1-in-2), core values (1-in-3), height and build (1-in-3), career goals (1-in-2)... and these 400 candidates are whittled down to 6 — and that's just by applying a few reasonable criteria.

The result?  Only 6 out of 100,000 random people might be compatible "on paper".  That's roughly 1-in-17,000.

Wait, we're not done yet!

Being compatible on paper is like passing a written driving test or admiring a holiday destination on a map: it’s a good start, but it means nothing until you experience it firsthand.

To obtain a driver’s license, you need more than just theoretical knowledge — you must prove you can control a vehicle.  Similarly, to truly enjoy a vacation, you have to show up at your destination.

In the same way, for two people to become "a thing", there needs to be a "spark".  Studies suggest that even with someone who ticks all the right boxes on paper, there’s only a 10-20% chance of having a deep, two-way connection.

These calculations are approximate but they make a point: if only 10-20% of 1-in-17,000 random people are "ideal partners", that translates to roughly 1-in-85,000 to 1-in-170,000.  Let's say about 1-in-100,000.

The bad news: On average only about 1-in-100,000 people might qualify as a "perfect match".

What does this mean for me?

Despite the daunting odds, there are still tens of thousands of perfect partners for you worldwide.  We estimate around 80,000.

Consider the scenario in a bustling urban hub like New York City, with a population of around 8 million.  Sounds promising, doesn't it?

The mathematics of love tells us that no more than about 80 (8 million ÷ 100,000) potential perfect partners are likely to live there — a number comparable to the guest list at a large New Year's Eve party.

If you live in a town with a population of 2,000 then there's only a 1-in-50 chance of finding your true love locally.

Why is this important?

The consequences of picking the wrong person to build a life with can be devastating:

• Waking up in a nightmare every morning
• Facing temptation every day
• Decades of unhappiness
• Divorce consequences

Getting it right first time adds years of happiness to your life, can save you a fortune, and lets you watch your children grow up.

Online dating to the rescue!

Studies indicate that around 10% (some say more) of committed relationships in 2023 began online.  By 2040, it is predicted that over 70% of couples will have met through the Internet.

We live in a world where people are spending more time indoors, preoccupied with work and gadgets, and less time socializing in person.  The chances of stumbling upon your dream partner in the local park, coffee shop, or neighborhood bar are remote.

Not being subject to the constraints of locale, online dating platforms offer a solution: A vast pool of potential dates, most of whom you would never have encountered in real life, photographed, categorized, organized, searchable, and easily contacted.

By transcending the barriers of time and space, online dating allows you to connect with strangers on your own terms, anonymously or publicly, without the initial awkwardness found in real life encounters.

Each time you click on someone who looks attractive to you, you're already half way there.  But half way towards 1-in-100,000 is still 1-in-316 statistically speaking.  That's why we also need to carefully read profiles, look at other photos, chat, video chat... and meet.

On the downside, online dating often creates what psychologists call the "Paradox of Choice".  When faced with an overwhelming number of options, users can feel paralyzed or uncertain, making it harder to commit to any one person.  This abundance of choice may lead to "grass is greener" syndrome — the belief that a better match is just a swipe away — which can prevent meaningful connections and foster a habit of continually seeking "something better".

Barely Dating allows greater certainty in our matches by revealing physical features that are not allowed to be shown on conventional dating apps.  For example, an inverted belly button, chest moles, perfectly-formed upper thighs, and perhaps other features you can think of!

The next time you find yourself gazing wistfully at the horizon, pondering the improbability of finding love in your own backyard, remember this: your soulmate might be just a click away, waiting to embark on a journey of discovery with you.  Embrace the infinite possibilities of online dating, and who knows?  The love of your life might be closer than you think.